Every signal Scouly uses is sourced from public records: SBA 7(a)/504 loans, PPP payroll data, Form 5500 headcounts, state business registries, and OpenStreetMap establishment density.
| Source | Publisher | What it establishes |
|---|---|---|
| 7(a) and 504 loan disclosure | US Small Business Administration | Loan amount, approval date, disclosed term, and therefore scheduled maturity |
| PPP loan data | US Small Business Administration | Payroll scale at the time of application |
| Form 5500 | US Department of Labor | Employee headcount for plan filers |
| State business registries | Individual US states | Registry-verified formation date, so business age is documented rather than estimated |
| Companies House register | UK Government | Incorporation dates for UK coverage |
| OpenStreetMap | OpenStreetMap contributors | Establishment density, used to measure how fragmented a local market is |
66,307 SBA 7(a)/504 loans have a computable maturity year, derived from approval date plus the term disclosed in the SBA's public FOIA files. 7,892 of them reach maturity between 2026 and 2028. A balloon is a dated decision for the owner, refinance or sell, so the series works as a forward calendar of likely ownership changes rather than a record of past ones.
Released under CC0 with no signup and no attribution requirement. Long format, so it drops straight into a pivot table or pandas.
The term is not disclosed on every SBA record, so these counts undercount and the true figure is higher. Maturity is derived from approval date plus disclosed term, which ignores refinancing, early payoff and default, so a listed loan may already be settled. SBA borrowers are not a random sample of small businesses, so the series describes SBA-financed ownership specifically. It is a screening signal and not a diligence conclusion. Full methodology.